If you only look at one freight market, you’re getting half the picture right now. The Baltic Dry Index just hit its highest level since late 2021. Container shipping is heading into what a lot of analysts are calling a multi-year downcycle. Same global economy, same month, two commodities telling opposite stories about who has the leverage.
Here’s what’s actually driving it, and what I’d be doing differently because of it.
The bulk market just got tight
The Baltic Dry Index climbed to 3,628 in early September, up 140 points and its strongest reading since 2021, driven mainly by Capesize vessels, the big ships that move iron ore and coal on long-haul routes like Brazil to China and Australia to China. When Capesize rates run hot, it’s usually because too few large bulkers are chasing too much cargo, and right now miner activity in the Pacific and steady Brazilian iron ore volumes are doing exactly that.
If your business touches raw materials, energy inputs, or anything that moves by bulk carrier, this is the market where the leverage just shifted to the carriers. Budget accordingly.
Containers are telling the opposite story
While bulk tightens, the container side is loosening. Shipyards have a wave of new vessel capacity scheduled for delivery through the rest of 2026, and multiple industry forecasts now describe a structural overcapacity problem rather than a temporary dip. The mechanics matter here: once a vessel is already mostly booked, the cost of adding one more container drops sharply, which is why carriers are holding onto older ships as a kind of insurance against demand swings rather than scrapping them. It keeps volume moving even when rates are soft.
For anyone shipping containers, that’s the opposite signal from bulk: capacity is outpacing demand, which is exactly the environment where it pays to lock in longer-term freight agreements rather than ride the spot market.
The merger that opens a window
DSV completed its acquisition of DB Schenker at the end of April 2025, creating a combined logistics group with roughly €41.6 billion (about $46 billion) in annual revenue and close to 160,000 employees across more than 90 countries. That makes it one of the largest freight forwarders in the world by a wide margin.
Mergers this size come with a predictable side effect: a multi-year integration window (realistically 2026 through 2028, based on DSV’s own synergy timeline) where systems get migrated, regional offices get consolidated, and account teams change. That friction is exactly when mid-tier accounts start shopping around, not because the new combined entity is worse, but because service continuity gets shaky during any integration this large. If you’re a forwarder or a 3PL competing for freight in this region, this is a real window, not a theoretical one.
Why the UAE is treating data like infrastructure
DP World’s first half 2026 results told two stories at once: revenue up 13.1% to $12.7 billion, but profitability pressured by the Jebel Ali disruption. What’s notable is the response. Off the back of those results, DP World confirmed plans to invest a further $3 billion in 2026 across the UAE, Asia, and Africa, building directly on the Fujairah expansion (the 50-year concession for two new terminals).
There’s a second, quieter bet happening alongside the concrete: benchmarking discipline. Freight rate indices like the Baltic Dry Index, air cargo indices such as TAC and WorldACD, exist specifically so shippers and carriers aren’t negotiating off a single broker’s quote. The more a market (or a government tender process) anchors to transparent, third-party rate data instead of one-off quotations, the harder it is for any single party to quietly overcharge. That’s a genuinely useful discipline to import into procurement conversations, regardless of which government is doing the buying.
What I’d do with this
Three things, if I were planning freight through this region right now:
If you move anything by bulk carrier, don’t assume last quarter’s rate holds. The Capesize market has moved, and it moved fast.
If you move containers, this overcapacity window is a genuine opportunity to lock in multi-year rates while carriers are competing for volume, not a reason to wait for prices to drop further.
Watch the DSV-Schenker integration timeline. If you compete with either brand for freight forwarding business, 2026-2028 is when displaced accounts will be actively looking.
That’s issue two. If this was useful, forward it to someone who’s negotiating a freight contract this quarter.
Dhiraj
Sources
Baltic Dry Index climbs to 3,628, up 140 points, Hellenic Shipping News: https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/baltic-dry-index-climbs-to-3628-up-140-points/
DSV completes acquisition of Schenker, DSV: https://www.dsv.com/en/about-dsv/press/news/dsv-completes-acquisition-of-schenker-2628130
With 13% revenue growth in first half, DP World plans $3 billion investment in 2026, Transport and Logistics ME: https://www.transportandlogisticsme.com/smart-logistics/with-13-revenue-growth-in-first-half-dp-world-plans-investment-of-us3-billion-in-2026
DP World signs 50-year concession to develop new UAE terminal outside Hormuz, The Loadstar: https://theloadstar.com/dp-world-signs-50-year-concession-to-develop-new-uae-terminal-outside-hormuz/
DP World H1 2026 Revenue Jumps 13.1% to $12.7bn, Gulf News: https://gulfnews.com/amp/story/business/markets/dp-world-revenue-jumps-131-despite-disruption-to-middle-east-trade-flows-1.500639472
Container Shipping Overcapacity & Rate Outlook 2026, Freightos: https://www.freightos.com/freight-resources/ocean-and-air-freight-forecast-2026-what-to-expect/
Dhiraj Kalro, LetsTalkSCL, © 2026. All rights reserved.
Contact: [email protected]
The views and opinions expressed in this publication are solely those of the author, in a personal capacity, and do not necessarily reflect the views, policies, or positions of any current, former, or future employer, client, business partner, or affiliated organization. Nothing in this publication constitutes professional, legal, financial, or investment advice, and no reliance should be placed on it as such. All facts and figures are sourced from publicly available reporting as cited, and while every reasonable effort is made to verify accuracy, no warranty is given as to completeness or correctness. This content may be shared with attribution but may not be reproduced, republished, or distributed for commercial purposes without prior written consent.